the sovereign debt crisis is also for many

What will be the consequences of the new tax decided by the Australian Government for extractive companies

You can already see two: investments scheduled which will not be and the correction of the course of mining stock exchange. These are survendues today. Of course, is not only because of the threat posed by the new regime of taxation on their profitability. the sovereign debt crisis is also for many. However, the effects on future investments are only from his. This surcharge, which will bring about 9 billion Australian dollars (6 billion) to the Government, will weigh on the value of the mining companies. I know from direct experience that many transactions were likely to be revised downward.

For example

An adjustment to the decline of 6 on the supply of redemption of Macarthur Coal by Peabody Energy was observed. The merger between BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto iron ore should also be subject to a review. We expect that the uncertainty created by this tax leads to a decline in the order of 20 of the transactions initiated by foreign investors in the Australian mining industry. Ironically, the Australian Government forecasts suggest an increase in the production of mineral resources of the order of 6 in Australia of the fact of this tax. A number of other countries could be tempted to follow the initiative of the Australian Government in adding the tax burden on extractive groups in turn. This could have a negative impact on the supply of raw materials.

Could mergers & acquisitions activity suffer a blow of judgment

I do not. In contrast, the superlevy could change certain trends. It will prompt to perform takeover operations in other parts of the world. Latin America first, which attracts more and investments of this nature. But also the Canada, to the most attractive tax regime. There is also the appearance of new arrivals on the scene of mining consolidation: investment firms or funds. In 2009, only Asian companies have distinguished themselves in this area, Chinese in mind.

What are your forecasts on the subject for this year

I table on an increase of 10 to 12 of the total value of mergers-acquisitions mining in 2010 compared to 2009. The upward trend of prices and volumes of natural resources will obviously contribute to this phenomenon. The trend is now to focus on the acquisition of targeted assets or to establish business ventures rather than merge companies. Targeted products by consolidation, as in 2009, it will always iron ore, metallurgical coal, thermal coal, uranium and natural, of course, gold. Increasing attention is paid to the metals of the new era, including lithium.

Where is it long Bull cycle of the prices of industrial raw materials

The last wave of decline in prices was unlikely to last. It is more the product of the return of the risk aversion in financial markets as a reflection of the actual conditions of supply and demand. Emerging countries remain engines of growth of the markets of mineral resources. This side, no significant decline of purchases and consumption of industrial raw materials is found. Thus, medium-term potential for appreciation of the course remains intact.