An Ariane 6 rocket by 2020 or 2025. This is the recommendation of the report recently submitted to the French Prime Minister by CEA, DGA and CNES regarding the replacement of the Ariane V and Soyuz rockets. This is therefore the proposal that France, the leader in the field of launch rockets, will put to its European partners. Given the lead times required for such a program between 15 and 20 years a decision in principle will need to be taken in 2011, at the next meeting of the European Space Agency Ministerial Council. The ESA's Director General, will be able to give his point of view at a press conference today.
Although it is clearly too early to set out in any detail the technological building blocks of the future rocket, the report already sets out its main features. Ariane 6 will be a modular, single-payload rocket capable of launching institutional (particularly military) and commercial satellite weighing between three and six tonnes. "This is the first time that a report on the future of Ariane starts from a basis of market requirements", states Jean-Yves Le Gall, Chairman and CEO of Arianespace. "This report brings us back to the fundamentals of space policy, instead of focusing solely on protecting expertise." In short, there is no question of drawing on engineers'ideas just to support and protect engineering teams.
The second goal is to build a launcher that is "highly competitive in terms of launch, construction and operational costs". This is where the problems could start, as the European industry cannot improve competitiveness without modifying the geographical carve-up that sees work distributed in proportion to the money invested by each country. "without changing the distribution of work, there's not much we can do," notes François Auque, Chairman and CEO of EADS Astrium, the lead contractor for Ariane, who believes that he has already done as much as he can in reducing staff numbers. The issue of launch costs will, however, need to be addressed, as from a commercial point of view the report recommends a break with the current situation.
European preference
With growing competition from China and India, the market for commercial satellite launches will become ever tougher. The report's authors recommend that Arianespace makes a priority of institutional satellite launches, with just enough telecommunications satellites to "produce the launch rate" minimum that will ensure the reliability of the rocket (5 to 6 per year). For this to work, two conditions will have to be met, suggesting that some vigorous debates between European partners lie ahead.
The first is that member states adopt the principle of European preference. That is to say that they undertake to use Ariane for their military and other public-sector satellite launches. This is far from being the case at present. The Italians, for instance, launched a military satellite on a Russian rocket in April. "As a businessman and a citizen, I am in favour of European preference", responds Reynald Seznec, Chairman and CEO of the Franco-Italian satellite maker Thales Alenia Space. The second condition, clearly, is that these same countries feel they are benefiting financially from this arrangement.
Which brings us back to the issue of launch costs. "European preference is only defensible if it is operated under the best terms cost for the member states which finance the launch vehicle sector." "That this is clearly not the case at present is agreed by all involved", notes the report.
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