Objectively who blame him to fix such a rule

It was more than that. At the end of a presidential campaign considered "low" by some, "nauseating" by others, where personal attacks between candidates held rather than fundamental debate, observers have hoped that something: the Romania so finally the political deadlock situation she knows since the implosion, in October, the ruling coalition. The economy of the country depends on it. However, two days after the election, one thing is certain: rather than clarify the political game, the election might have made it even more opaque. The favorite, Mircea Geoana, started by claim victory on the evening of Sunday. But in the night, coup de Theatre: it would finally be the outgoing President, Traian Basescu, who would have capped the wireless rival. Yesterday, this reversal was confirmed by the central electoral Bureau. Des suffrages, , votes won the Presidency with 50.3. But, already, Mircea Geoana team initiated a procedure to challenge the result.

Between charges of fraud and victory in a Pocket handkerchief, all conditions are met to keep deleterious climate. As the likely victory of Basescu does not bode well on this plan. His first term was marked by political hiccups, consequences of his personality, his populist temptation and its power as a solitary task design. "He divided the company between good and evil, allies and enemies, and not brought to this country serenity," judge a good connoisseur of Romanian politics. Indeed, in the second round of the election, almost all parties had rallied his opponent. Therefore, how will it do to bring together a new coalition Government

The IMF puts its foot down

The negative implications for the economy will be immediate. Because the Romania, in financial difficulty because of the crisis, appealed to aid donors, early 2009. The international monetary fund and the European Union have pledged a loan of 20 billion euros. But since October, the third tranche of the IMF is not. Despite the urgency, impossible for the Fund to find an interlocutor of the fact that the coalition flew apart. This situation is therefore likely to continue: no Government, no remittance.

But the problem is probably toughest yet more long term. New of the European Union (with the Bulgaria) would need a pilot to navigate the choppy waters ahead. The candidates in the election are well kept to say, but 2010 promises to be a year of fiscal austerity. "During the years of strong growth, successive electoral deadlines, and the temptation was to increase public spending," recalls Peter Sanfey, Economist at the European Bank for reconstruction and development (EBRD). Between increases in the salaries of civil servants and the adjustment of pensions, public expenditure increased by nearly 5 of GDP in 2008! After efforts to join the European Union, the release was net. The result is known: Bucharest should present a deficit of 7.3 of GDP in 2009. "Last year we had the strongest structural deficit of the European Union", regrets Catalin Pauna, Economist of the World Bank in Bucharest.

The IMF, to continue to support the country, requires that the same deficit be brought back to 5.9 of the GDP next year. "Objectively, who blame him to fix such a rule."wondered Claudiu Cercel, number two of the BRD, subsidiary local Société Générale. In the business community, it is understood: there is no grand méchant IMF, but authorities who will have to pay for their demagogy passed. This means, specifically, increase the intake or reduce benefits. Claudiu Cercel, "the most likely is a VAT increase". No question, however, to interfere with the famous "flat tax", which takes 16 of household incomes and as much of the profits of companies, and which has long been one of the keys to the attraction of multinational strategy.

A public machine to streamline

The other track would be to broaden the base of taxation in the country. With an informal economy weighing around 40 of GDP, the Romania barely raise enough tax. Reported to the GDP, the level of tax collection is two times lower than the average of the European Union. The previous Minister of finance had publicly estimated the shortfall at 14 of GDP! But some experts suggest figures much more impressive, between 20 and 40 of GDP. If the Romania harvested tax correctly, it would more deficit problem.

Unfortunately, all observers agree to extend this last proposal: If the public machine functioned properly, the Romania would be more problem. Example: 30 billion euro of European funds promised to Bucharest for the period from 2007 to 2013, less than 5 have been used at this stage, lack of processing capacity. "This money is but a historic opportunity to develop the country," said Claudiu Cercel.

Of course, as noted by consultant Dragos Pislaru, "do not forget where comes from the Romania and all the way it has already come. Of course, continues Richard Perrin, a partner at KPMG in Bucharest, "compared with other countries, communism has been hard here, his scars are more present, and the country is probably less mature politically". Still, is it that the effectiveness of the public machine contrasts with European standards. A series of business (airports, subways, railways, highways... companies) are still in the fold of the State, where many former countries of the East have already privatized activities. In a structurally deficit country, there is urgency to clean up the State and to streamline its modes of operation, to make it efficient. Would this, for example, to allow the construction of highways promised for years. "The Romanian roads are below in the European Union," loose an outside observer.

Waltz of officials

How do I Better fighting corruption (see box above). But also in inspiring some continuity in the functioning of the administration. Unlike a country like the France, where the technostructure remains in place in the political changes, "here, number of coaching positions change in every election, and to the directors of plant", regrets Richard Perrin. So elections, rather than opposition parties with divergent social projects, especially are a set of key positions rehabilitation in the administration. The political class has desire to waive this mode of operation More deeply, is the horizon in the short term compatible with a plan of reorganization in depth of the public apparatus, which will likely require years

The end of the casino economy

In the same way, the time of the policy does not appear in phase with that of the economy. Politicians have had good repeat forever that the economic crisis came from abroad, economists, they know that there was something unhealthy in the insolent growth of recent years. After a GDP rose by more than 7 in 2008, the Romania is about to display the same result this year... but in negative territory! Valentin Lazea, Chief Economist of the Central Bank, file the traffic metaphor to justify this situation: "Does more damage to a tree at 200 kilometres per hour and to 100."For him, this is no doubt: "85 of the GDP, consumption was enlarged."Between the consumer and mortgage credits, household endettaient without soul States, excited by a market economy which did not yet know the excess.

Today, the most lucid know that nothing will be more like never before. In a hesitant world, foreign capital continued to feed the machine to go into debt. Finished, economy casino "is perhaps time to develop, for example supporting a national production, or developing agriculture", said Claudiu Cercel. Political scientist Cristian Pârvulescu joined him on this point and particularly emphasizes the rural world. "Officially, we have 40 of rural people in our population." In fact, almost 60 of Romanians live in the countryside. This is a unique case in Europe, a deposit and a gigantic construction site in the long term.

Scenario currently taking place in Romania is the very opposite than hoped all analysts. "Il is a Cape in this country", summarizes Dragos Pislaru. In the absence of captain to fix, may need a new external pressure, the image of the role of accelerator of reforms that had represented the entry in the European Union. "The project of euro membership is only capable of inducing changes in depth with this economy needs," believes Valentin Lazea. Remains whether a central banker dream can become a major popular programme...

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