8 of the vote hold the key to the election

The waivers, Sunday, in the presidential election, shook the certainties in the camp of President incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, caught by corruption cases in the last straight line of the campaign. His absence from the debate televised Friday, between the let, has also contributed to his opponents. Against all odds, his main rival, the Social Democrat Geraldo Alckmin, won considerable ground just before the vote, winning 41.6 of the votes cast, that is 7 points less than the outgoing (48.6) President. "I never imagined even not that it can achieve such score", says Alberto Goldman, one of the tenors of the opposition Social-Democrat (PSDB).

Lula must therefore play the extensions. "This election that seemed almost won becomes much more complicated," said political scientist Claudio Couto, of the Catholic University (PUC) of São Paulo, that corruption cases are the cause of the reversal of the situation.

A tough campaign

The former trade unionist, however, remains well placed to retain the Presidency in the second round, scheduled on 29 October. "The probability of the victory of Lula remains high," said Hélio Jaguaribe, Professor of the Institute of political and social studies of Rio de Janeiro. According to him, the voters of the candidate of the extreme left, Heloisa Helena Lima, third in the first round with 6.8 of the vote, hold the key to the election. In open war against Lula since his expulsion from the Party of workers (PT), she refused to give instructions to vote. "Voters will punish Lula for his neo-liberal policy either, they consider, however, closer to their concerns as Alckmin." "Finally, the majority of them should prefer Lula", believe, finding minimal probability for the victory of the social democratic candidate in the second round.

However, the former Minister of Education of Lula, Cristovam Buarque (2.6 of the votes), has already contacted by the opposition to a possible alliance.

The campaign, which opens officially tomorrow, promises to be long and very hard. Lula will continue to defend its economic and social balance sheet while Geraldo Alckmin advertising its ability to reform the State and to blow the locks which curtailed the growth (taxation, public spending inefficiency, etc.). The Social Democratic challenger has already hardened the tone, defending the ethics policy and criticising the poor growth of the country (2.3 last year). Was "The Brazil a vocation to be the first, and not the last in Latin America", launched.

The score in the first round, also points out, a dual-polarized social and regional: Lula WINS in the Nordeste and among the poor, while Geraldo Alckmin is the favourite of the rich and inhabitants of the South and centre-west of the country.

Beyond São Paulo, the largest state of the Federation, the PSDB also retained control of Minas Gerais, two - more th electoral college in the country, with the re-election of Governor Aécio Neves (75 of the vote). Close to Lula, Jaques Wagner, caused surprise in Bahia by beating a cacique of the Nordeste. The former Minister Olivio Dutra also qualified for the second round in the State of Rio Grande do Sul.

The Chamber of Deputies, it is the centrist party (PMDB), which will play once again the role of arbitrator, while opponents of Lula will dominate the Senate.