This time it should be a little positive 0

The scenario of the Insee, table on a moderation of the recession in the second quarter, is based on a logical chain of factors. "It does not shock, it is part and parcel of the exercise," says Eric Dubois, head of the Department of the environment in the Insee.

A less degraded international environment

Financial markets "are in the process of normalization" and "stimulus measures reduce the decline in demand" in all economies, says Olivier Redoulès INSEE. Therefore, "international trade is expected to decrease less strongly" quarter after quarter and French exports, which would fall by 13.5 on average this year, should moderate their withdrawal over the months. The balance of trade would cost still 0.6 point of growth this year, the resistance of the French consumption limiting the decline in imports ( 10.1).

Adjustment on inventory "in the process of completion."

Result of a gradual return to normal of foreign demand, "the inventory adjustment would end" in France, States Benoît Heitz, head of the Insee economic synthesis division. These past months, the industry especially in the automobile have passed their stocks, which has weighed heavily on the production. The decline in manufacturing output will be "unprecedented magnitude" this year, according to the Insee: 15.7 expected. On average, stocks will cost 1.5 point of growth this year, half of the decline in the GDP expected ( 3). A restocking is envisaged only in the last quarter.

Investment down to overcapacity

With the fall of these quarters demand, capacity utilisation rates are more than 71, 13 points below their average of long period. To such overcapacity of production, business investment should continue to decline throughout the year, to show a decline of 8.9 on average over the year. Business margin rate should nevertheless remain nearly stable ( 0.2 point to 31), declining of the payroll, said Insee.

Destruction of historical jobs

The wave of job losses is not completed, preventing the Insee. "Placed next to the decrease in activity, employment adjustment has been partial and moderate", States Benoît Heitz. The 193.000 positions destroyed in the first quarter in the non-agricultural market sector, should still add about 180.000 second and then in the third quarter and even more than 150,000 in the last quarter, for a total of 699.000 deletions. Employment "descended year to its lowest level since 2000", and note the Insee. Degradation "would affect the services out of acting, which had been spared in 1993", States Benoît Heitz. In merchant tertiary 404.000 jobs would be destroyed, while 51,000 positions would be destroyed in the construction and 243.000 in the industry, "is three times more than in 2008", said Insee. Only the non-merchant sector (with the assisted contracts) amortirait the shock, with 1.121.775 creations of posts (33,000 in 2008), which would limit the total balance of the destruction of jobs to 592.000. Unemployment would thus increase 2.5 point in a year, at 10.5 (10.1 in metropolitan France) end of 2009, is "the highest level since mid-1999", indicates the Insee.

With the disinflation positive purchasing power

Despite the destruction of jobs, the disinflation and stimulus measures should allow the power to purchase advance and even more than in 2008: 1.1, against 0.6 last year. Inflation should be zero this year, anticipating the Insee, 2.8 average last year.

A more resilient consumption than elsewhere

"Consumption plays a role of damper in recessions because it fluctuates less than investment or exports," says Eric Dubois. A role that seems accentuated: "in the recessions of 1974 and 1993, it had remained stable." "This time, it should be a little positive" ( 0.7 expected). Further, in any case, that in euro area ( expected 1.6), through, inter alia, to a purchasing power of still positive and less high household debt than in other countries. The savings rate increase of even slightly ( 0.3 point, to 15.6).