6 in 2006 for the profits of the Standard Poor's 500 index from 13

Summer period requires, the activity of revision of the beneficiary perspective of analysts is relative slowdown, as the flow of information of the companies and their markets decreased. But the relative calm is not a prelude to a change in majority opinion on a favourable evolution in 2006 and 2007, results of listed firms. For the current year, the figures are explicit: corporations calling the CAC 40 index should increase their profits by 9.8, with anticipation of 9.5 a month ago.

The same reasoning applies for large values of the index DJ Euro Stoxx 50 of the euro area, with a now proposed increase of 9, against 8.6 a month earlier. Analysts have also improved their perception of the recipients Outlook for 500 more capitalized Wall Street firms: 13.6 in 2006, for the profits of the & Standard Poor's 500 index, from 13.2 to June 12.

Another is significant, experts continued to degrade the expectations for the segment of high technology shares. "The bulk of the alerts on results of the high technology sector is now integrated with forecasts," said Jean-Luc Buchalet, founder shareholder of Pythagoras investment and strategist in FactSet, a company which provides monthly data on the evolution of the earnings per share forecasts.

Adequate visibility

"This overall improvement in expectations on this exercise, coupled with volatility estimates currently at its lowest history, indicates that the specialists have acquired sufficient visibility on the evolution of the profitability of the companies they monitor", judge strategist. To lower the average forecast for 2007, they is due to a pure effect of base relative to projections of 2006. "The 2006 profits are proportionally more re-evaluated than those of 2007." "Where the light drop-out increases the profits envisaged for next year", details Jean-Luc Buchalet. Stall which, moreover, is that European.

Black macroeconomic scenarios that would motivate a vertical drop of profits seem so overwhelmingly rejected by the experts. "Face on the shares that remain very high and relative risk premia stability of the long part of the rates despite monetary tightening, the awards expected this summer, know better progress," said strategist of FactSet.

Only the unexpected elements of the global geopolitical environment could taint the short-term perspective. In particular, "open the loved and the Middle East conflict could ignite more and sustainable prices of oil and precipitate the world economy in a spiral of recession", prevents Jean-Luc Buchalet.

The stock market rebound of recent weeks has not delivered a clear and unequivocal message on the likelihood of an economic crisis. On the one hand, it was found startup more defensive sectors (pharmacy, agri-food and retail), startup which would seem to indicate a dull scenario for the second part of the year. On the other, it was observed a return in the more cyclical values grace (mining, industrial and financial services), resumed making hope a continued global economic growth at an accelerated pace.

Exception to this last large sector bustle, the values of the telecommunications, neglected despite their defensive nature, those of insurance, considered too exposed to the vagaries of the financial markets, and, once again, technology, values too sensitive for consumption in Western countries.